Prediction Markets See Surge in Geopolitical Wagering Amid Global Uncertainty
Event contracts tied to geopolitical upheaval are attracting millions in speculative capital. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi report surging volumes on questions ranging from military interventions to leadership collapses. Over $110 million in wagers now hinge on outcomes like "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela?" and "Israel strikes Iran by January 2026?"—a stark reflection of market participants hedging against—or capitalizing on—global instability.
The $10.5 million bet on Venezuelan regime change exemplifies this trend. Meanwhile, niche contracts probe everything from Taiwan-China tensions to African coups. These markets, once dominated by sports and equities, now function as crude barometers of geopolitical risk appetite.